As we do every year we have tallied up the market data points for our local areas for 2010 to see what trends we can find.  The analysis is divided up into four distinct areas.

1. Lower Woodside, excluding the Skyline area.
2. Skyline, which consists of the general skyline area from Hwy 92 south past Alpine Road.
3. La Honda.
4. Coastside, which consists of Loma Mar, Pescadero and San Gregorio.

In this article we will discuss Lower Woodside and the trends of the last year.  In future articles we will address the other locations.

Lower Woodside.
Prices in Lower Woodside took a tumble from last year.  The median price was down from $2.512M to $1.948M, representing a 22% drop from last year.  This price drop brings the median sales price down to around 2003 levels.

Although not great news, there are some positive aspects.  The average number of sales has gone up, from 28 last year (which was the lowest in 10 years)  to 37 this year, much closer to the 10 year average of 48.  In addition, if you look at the graph above the gap between the list price and sales price is narrowing. The days on market from 2009 to 2010 has also decreased dramatically, dropping from 77 days to 45 days (see graph below).

One other indicator is the number of solds vs the number of properties that didn't sell and were pulled off the market for whatever reason.  in 2009 the ratio was really high, there were 28 sales and 53 properties that didn't sell and were pulled from the market, almost double the solds.  In Lower Woodside over the last 10 years, the average number of annual sales is 48  and the average pulled from the market is 49 (see chart below).  In 2010 that number came more in line with the norm, there were 37 properties sold and 44 that were pulled off the market.


What does all this mean?
Good questions.  This indicates that the market is finding its equilibrium.  The days on market has decreased, the list price vs sales price has come closer in line, the number of solds vs pulled from the market ratio has decreased and the sales volume is getting closer to the average .  It looks like this market is finding it's bottom, it may not have yet, but it looks like it is close.  My prediction is that this market will level off in 2011 and begin slowly rising in 2012.

What does this mean if you are planning to buy?
If you are looking to buy now, I would move forward.  As a teaser, two of the three other markets we will look at later have this same general trend but experienced it earlier, this year the prices started to climb a tiny bit (see the La Honda and Skyline articles).  The heyday of this market was 2007 and 2008, the market has dropped 30% since then.  All the signs are that the market is getting healthy again, or is at least on the road.  Any nominal drop in price could be more than made up for in increases in mortgage rates.

What  does this mean if you are planning to sell?
The good news is that it would appear the bleeding has stopped, and now we are headed towards a flat market.  We lost 30% of value off the highs of 2007/08 and I don't expect we will see that come back anytime soon.  Most economist agree that when there is a housing recovery it will be a measured one, with slowly increasing value.  If you can stay in your house another five years or so, you may see a small increase in value, but I can almost guarantee you won't see 30%.  If you need or want to sell now, I don't think there will be much of a difference between selling now and selling in 2012 or 2013 except you will have paid more interest on your mortgage.

If you have any questions about this or would like the raw data we would be happy to supply you with it.   Please feel free to contact us at 650-851-8100 or visit our website at www.BirdHayes.com and we can show you how to thrive in this challenging market.